Gubernatorial Landscape — By the Numbers

Over at PJ Media, Scott Elliott has crunched numbers on the 36 statehouses up for grabs — a baker’s dozen deciding the balance of power among the nation’s governors (currently 29 Republicans, 21 Democrats).

His math:

– One Republican seat that’s an easy pickup for Democrats (Pennsylvania);

– Two Democratic seats (Arkansas, Hawaii) that lean Republican;

– Five “true toss-ups”, three being Republican (Florida, Maine, Michigan) and two Democratic (Connecticut, Illinois)

– Five “leaning to hold”, four being Republican (Georgia, Kansas, New Mexico, Wisconsin) and one Democratic (Colorado)

– After the aforementioned 13 gubernatorial contests: a bonus three “potentially competitive” races in Arizona, Ohio, Oklahoma (all are Republican)

Elliott also offers what may turn out to be the correcrt pre- and post-mortem on this year’s set of governors races:

In 2010, the last midterm election, thirty-seven gubernatorial elections produced a staggering 17 partisan takeovers – 11 by Republicans, 5 by Democrats, and independent Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island.  Add to that count several states in which sitting governors were term-limited, decided against running for reelection, or lost their primary, and you have a remarkable statistic. Twenty-six states — over half the states in the country — welcomed a new governor in 2011.

So do we have the same kind of shakeup in store in 2014?  Probably not, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of interesting and competitive races to enjoy this year.

To be continued . . .

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